Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Would Iran use a nuke?

Would Iran attack the West or Israel with a nuclear weapon if it had one?

I think eventually it would try to carry out a nuclear attack. The question would be, when?

Because of Iran's limited industrial and technical capacity, it would not have an inventory of bombs and missles to deliver them right away. It would start with one bomb, then two, then a few more, etc. over time. Would it attack Israel or Europe or the United States as soon as it had one bomb or two?

It is a safe assumption that Iran's first nuclear attack would be its last. Once they have the bomb, the longer they wait, the more they will have, and the greater the attack will be when it comes. Hitler did not go to war the moment he had the power to go to war. He waited and built up Germany's military strength first. So I do not think they will attack immediately if they develop the bomb. They will leverage their negotiating power while they build more bombs, using the few they have as a deterent.

But I think eventually they would try to attack Israel, the United States, and Europe. They can also use their increasing power to choke Persian Gulf oil traffic and bring the Western economy to its knees, or threaten to do so if their demands (whatever they would be) are not met. They could do that with convential military forces by announcing an oil blockade in the Gulf and threatening to attack oil tankers with their missles. This would close traffic. They could then use their nuclear ability as a deterent to prevent the United States from opening the Gulf with its naval power.

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