Pending Attack on Iran

I feel that events are approaching war between Israel and Iran with the United States backing Israel. A number of commentators have suggested that President Bush does not want to leave office with the problem of a nuclear-armed Iran unsolved, and will attack, or support an attack, designed to knock out Iran's facilities for developing nuclear weapons. Rush Limbaugh is just one example. He said something to the effect that he has a gut feeling Bush will deal with the situation before leaving office.

President Bush has repeatedly denied plans to attack Iran. But it stands to reason he would not alert Iran to his intentions by admitting them publicly. There may also have been delays during the summer until the weather in the region cools down in the fall, making war more feasible.

The United States may also be in the process of calming things down on the North Korean front with the intend of "clearing the deck" so it can concentrate on Iran exclusively.

It would also be important, if an attack took place, to do it before we withdraw most of our troops from Iraq. Those troops can be used to support a war against Iran while they are in the region. We are already stretched thin, but American forces are more effective in combat against large scale enemy forces than they are against guerilla forces, so this would be a conflict for which they are more suited.

If Bush plans to attack Iran, it seems it is likely in the next few months. He will not wait till close to next year's election.

Iran has warned that they would use their conventional weapons to close the Persian Gulf to all oil traffic, causing skyrocketting oil prices and a possible world-wide economic crisis. They can use their conventional missles to attack oil production facilities in other nations, shipping, and even United States naval forces. Oil producing nations in the region have warned the United States that if they attack Iran, they have to go all out, and completely knock-out Iran's conventional war capabilities and try to force a regime change. Just destroying Iran's nuclear facilities would not be enough.

What will be the effects of such a war?

I think it is also likely that Iran has "sleeper cells" of terrorists in this country that will retaliate if the United States or Israel attacks Iran. In fact, the preservation of these cells for the day when the West attacks Iran may be a reason terrorists have not been attacking American targets, in my opinion. They are being saved.

European public opinion may be against such an attack, and European leaders may voice disapproval, but I believe that many European leaders secretly want the United States to deal with the problem. A nuclear armed Iran is as much if not more of a threat to Europe as to the United States, and Europe is even more dependent on Persian Gulf oil than we are.

I figure the chance of an attack by Israel, the United States, or both against Iran is at least 50/50, if not more. If it occurs, it is likely to occur between between now and May 2008. And if it occurs, it will probably trigger rising oil prices, an economic disruption of some kind whether large or small, and terrorists attacks in the United States.